Home – A Resource for Corrections Agencies

This site is designed to be a resource for corrections agencies.  I have been studying criminal justice and criminology for eight years and am currently attending the University of Cincinnati in the criminal justice program.  I am working to obtain a doctoral degree, and am now working on my dissertation.

In the past eight years, my work on theories and research in criminology and criminal justice has outpaced my attempts to write journal articles and books on these topics.  The problem is compounded by the range of interests I have. It is difficult to pull all of this together.

Some of the things I have discovered seem to be new and important.  However, since I am so far behind in writing up my results, it is difficult to write the papers that explain what I have found. In some cases, there does not seem to be a literature to cite or an appropriate language to use to describe what I am trying to say.

This web site is a preliminary attempt to organize the work I am doing and to get input from others.  If you find something interesting, or have any questions or comments, please let me know.

The Dynamics of Criminal Propensity

I have three primary projects that I am working on.  The projects would seem to fall under the heading of “the dynamics of criminal propensity.”

First, I am working on a population level mathematical model of the relationship between criminal propensity, criminal sanctioning, and crime rates. This model, which I call the propensity/sanctions/crime (PSC) model, demonstrates that there is a nonlinear relationship between criminal propensity, criminal sanction levels, and crime. The model will help decision makers determine the effects of increasing sanction levels. It will also provide a better indication of the differences in criminal propensity between groups.

The second project is the study of the population level age crime curve, which plots the level of risk for the population over the life course. I am working on a model that explains how physical and mental development drive risk levels over the life course. This model would seem to have applications in institutional corrections. My model shows why it does not make sense to keep the aged in prison.

The third project I am working on is the study of individual offender risk over time.  I have been working to develop a theory to explain how development, trait, and state (DTS) factors interact and affect the risk levels of offenders.  This model would seem to have practical applications in offender risk assessment and community corrections.

Please look around.  If you see something you like, drop me a line and we can discuss it.  This is a work in progress and I welcome any comments or questions.

Tom Arnold